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A. Aknouche

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Preprint Jul 2026

Reclaiming the"frequentist"role of marginal likelihood in Bayesian belief revision

This work shows that the marginal probability possesses a critical dual layer of information: while the posterior probability determines the local magnitude of a belief update upon a solitary trial, the marginal denominator governs the physical, long-run frequentist cadence of that update across a historical horizon.

A. Aknouche · 0 citations

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