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A. G. Green

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Open access Jul 2026

FARM: Forecasting Antibiotic Resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis using biophysics and machine learning

Antibiotic-resistant tuberculosis remains a major public health challenge, and rapid diagnosis of resistant infections based on genomic markers holds promise for improving time to effective treatment. However, the vast majority of clinically observed variants in resistance-associated genes remain of uncertain significance, limiting the utility of predictors. Here we develop a multimodal forecasting framework, FARM (Forecasting Antibiotic Resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis) to determine whether a newly observed mutation in a resistance gene may indeed cause resistance. Our framework combines structural context, biophysical energy features, protein language model features, and mutational AAIndex physicochemical descriptors. Using 345 labeled mutations from the World Health Organization 2021 catalogue, we train interpretable models that distinguish resistance-associated from non-resistance-associated variants with holdout AUCs of 0.843–0.943. In a novel temporal evaluation of 62 mutations reclassified after the training data was released, the selected Combined model achieved 80.7% recall of resistant reclassifications (resistant-class F1=86.8; AUC=0.735). Applied to 4,525 current uncertain-significance mutations, the framework prioritizes 696 candidate resistance mutations, including genes associated with the new antibiotics bedaquiline, delamanid, and pretomanid. These forecasts are intended to support future catalogue updates and experimental follow-up.

Mahbuba Tasmin, Shrishti Barethiya, Yu Wang et al. · 0 citations
Open access Sep 2026

Towards Sparse Causal Features for Zero-shot Mutation Effect Prediction in a Protein Language Model

Protein language models (pLMs) such as ESM-2 achieve strong zero-shot mutation-effect prediction, yet the internal computations supporting these predictions remain poorly understood. We introduce a sparse feature circuit framework that combines sparse autoencoders, integrated-gradients attribution, and activation patching to identify the latent features that causally mediate zero-shot mutation effect prediction in ESM-2 650M. We evaluate this framework over 67 mutations ranging from strongly deleterious to weakly deleterious in the DNAJA1 J-domain, where ESM-2 predictions agree strongly with deep mutational scanning measurements. We find that circuits selected by indirect effect recover the model’s predictions more efficiently and provide more informative biological explanations than those selected by raw activation changes, showing that activation magnitude does not necessarily reflect causal importance. We find that related substitutions reuse substantial portions of their recovered circuits, ranging from 40% to 75%, and that the shared features often represent residues in three-dimensional contact with the mutation site. To our knowledge, our work provides the first causal, feature-level account of zero-shot mutation effect prediction in a pLM.

Saishradha Mohanty, Manya Phutela, A. G. Green · 0 citations
Sep 2026

ActiveFusion: Fused Representations Improve Active Learning for Molecular Property Prediction

Active learning provides an efficient strategy for molecular property prediction by iteratively prioritizing compounds for experimental evaluation. However, the effectiveness of active learning pipelines depends strongly on the choice of molecular representation, and systematic understanding of how representation families affect the active learning process in terms of uncertainty and predictive performance remains limited. In this work, we introduce ActiveFusion, a framework for integrating heterogeneous molecular representations within active learning workflows for molecular property prediction. The framework enables systematic evaluation of physicochemical descriptors, molecular fingerprints, learned graph neural network (GNN) representations, and pretrained Transformer-based representations, as well as feature-level fusion strategies that combine complementary chemical information sources. ActiveFusion evaluates models across four molecular property prediction regression tasks. Across datasets, we demonstrate that feature fusion between learned graph representations and physicochemical descriptors consistently improves prediction performance and discovery (average final iteration R2 of 0.71, 0.67, and 0.54 for our overall best representations Chemprop+RDKit, Chemprop, and RDKit, respectively). We show that exploration-driven acquisition strategies enhance scaffold coverage and promote sampling of structurally novel regions of chemical space, and that model-agnostic acquisition of new compounds based on diversity has strong performance. Notably, both pretrained and finetuned Transformer-based embeddings do not consistently outperform physicochemical features or GNN-learned representations in our setting, highlighting the continued relevance of chemically interpretable features and learned features from supervised, task-specific models for active learning applications in molecular property prediction. Overall, ActiveFusion provides a systematic framework for studying representation-acquisition interactions in molecular discovery with representation fusion capabilities. Our study offers practical guidance for designing active learning pipelines that balance prediction accuracy with chemical space exploration.

Nelson Evbarunegbe, Shiyun Wa, Luke Taylor et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Elite-Weighted Supervised Fine-tuning for Goal-Directed Molecular Optimization

This work introduces Elite-Weighted Supervised Fine-tuning (EW-SFT), which uses reward to guide elite selection of high-scoring molecules, and updates the model by its own pretraining loss on that set, and consistently outperforms the corresponding native optimizers.

Shiyun Wa, Yifei Wang, A. G. Green et al. · 0 citations

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