Author

Aaron J. Hill

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Preprint Sep 2026

Explainable Deep Learning for Probabilistic Nowcasting of Radar Reflectivity in Tornadic Storms

Tornadoes pose substantial risk to human life and property in the United States, causing more than 50 fatalities and \$100 million of property damage on average annually. When tornadoes are likely, weather radar provides critical information for forecasters by providing information on storm morphology, storm motion, an...

Nathan E. Erickson, Amy McGovern, Aaron J. Hill · 0 citations

#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Global Evaluation of AI and NWP Precipitation Forecasts During Atmospheric River Events

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) produce many of the world's most extreme precipitation events and hydrometeorological hazards. Although artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models have demonstrated skill comparable to or exceeding numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems for large-scale atmospheric variables, t...

Marina Vicens-Miquel, Taylor Mandelbaum, Amy McGovern et al. · 0 citations

#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Diffusion-Based Rollouts as a Stabilization Mechanism for Long-Horizon Environmental Forecasting

Extending forecast lead times while maintaining predictive skill remains a major challenge in environmental forecasting. We investigate diffusion-based rollouts as a stabilization mechanism for recursive forecasting using low-dimensional water-level time series and high-dimensional precipitation fields. Across both mod...

Marina Vicens-Miquel, Amy McGovern, Aaron J. Hill et al. · 0 citations