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We introduce Timestral, a family of four time series foundation models for probabilistic forecasting, with 5M, 28M, 123M, and 209M parameters. Timestral sets a new state of the art on GIFT-Eval, TIME, and fev-bench, where Timestral-209M and Timestral-123M take the top two places on every metric. We achieve this with th...
In grokking an early fit to the training data separates from a much later improvement in generalization. During this delay, training can move from a fixed neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime to one in which task-relevant kernel eigendirections continue to evolve. We provide a quantitative theory for how this transition...
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