Author

Ali Baheri

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Open access Sep 2026

Heterogeneous-Horizon Conformal Ensembles for Online Prediction Under Distribution Shift: An Empirical Comparison with Strongly Adaptive Methods

Online conformal prediction methods such as Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) and Fully Adaptive Conformal Inference (FACI) adjust prediction intervals under distribution shift, but their calibration is based on a common stream of recent nonconformity scores. We introduce Population-based Adaptive Conformal Ensembles...

Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi, Ali Baheri · Forecasting · 0 citations

Jul 2026

Wasserstein Stability of Contracting Flows: Effective Rates, Euler Self-Correction, and Noise Tightening

Contraction theory guaranties exponential convergence between trajectories of a stable nonlinear system. When initial conditions are uncertain and represented as probability distributions, as in ensemble control, Bayesian estimation, and generative modeling, this guaranty extends to the distributional level via Wassers...

Ali Baheri · arXiv.org · 0 citations