Author

Anton Conrad

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Preprint Aug 2026

Beyond Marginal Validity: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Localized Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable. Randomly localized conformal prediction (RLCP) mi...

Anton Conrad, R. Isaev, D. Belomestny et al. · 0 citations

#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Conformalized Quantile Regression and Minimax Limits of Fixed-Score Calibration under Known Covariate Shift

In this paper, we study nonasymptotic $L^p$ error bounds for interval length and conditional coverage in split conformalized quantile regression (CQR). Our bounds rely on local regularity conditions and accuracy guarantees for the estimated quantiles. We further instantiate our bounds for quantile regression with spars...

R. Isaev, Anton Conrad, D. Belomestny et al. · 0 citations