Author

Bas van Velthoven

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Preprint Oct 2026

Beyond the record: evaluating probabilistic AI weather forecasts deep in the tail

It is established that native probabilistic AI ensembles retain, and for heat increase, their advantage over IFS-ENS as thresholds move beyond local records, although all advantages narrow with lead time.

Bas van Velthoven, Cas Decancq, Diego G. Miralles et al. · 0 citations