Forecasting Non-Performing Loans in Bangladesh: Evidence from ARIMA and Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models
This study investigates the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) across Bangladesh’s banking sector using quarterly data from 2007 to 2024. Employing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) models, we analyze NPL behavior across state-owned commercial banks, specia...