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Author

Bowei He

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Preprint Sep 2026

Prediction-Market Seed Capital Recovery from Noise-Dominant Flow

Automated prediction markets require sponsors to prefund liquidity before observing order flow, creating a financing challenge at launch. We study whether nonnegative charges conditioned on observable payoff direction can improve recovery of this prefunded capital while limiting their effect on informed participation....

Yan-Kai Chen, Bowei He, Zhuo-Han Xie et al. · 1 citation
Preprint Sep 2026

Trade-Adaptive Aggregation of Probabilistic Financial Forecasts

SpanPM is introduced, a prediction-market mechanism that sets the local-curvature multiplier from each trade's realized payoff spread and preserves 96--97% of the trader surplus achieved with exact Bregman fees while cutting excess fees by 94\% relative to the global quadratic mechanism.

Yan-Kai Chen, Rassul Magauin, Bowei He et al. · 1 citation
#artificial intelligence Preprint Aug 2026

SCAFFOLD: Self-Improving Web Agents via Recursive Parametric Skill Abstraction

Web agents need to navigate visually rich, long-horizon interfaces that change across sites, yet most previous agents still learn each task in isolation and discard the procedural knowledge they accumulate. Recent skill-augmented frameworks take an important first step, but they treat the skill library as a flat or two...

Bowei He, Xiao-Kun Zhang, Meng-Jie Ding et al. · 1 citation
Preprint Aug 2026

AdaMTP: An Adaptive Training Paradigm for Multi-Token Prediction

AdaMTP is proposed, an adaptive training paradigm that dynamically aligns the prediction horizon with the intrinsic predictability of the sequence, and consistently outperforms standard MTP in both task performance and inference speedup.

Ziqiang Cui, Han Shi, Bowei He et al. · 0 citations

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