Chung-Han Chan

Systematic evaluation of ETAS forecasting skill across 69 $$M_L \ge 6$$ earthquakes in Taiwan (1999–2024)

Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) increasingly relies on the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model to provide short-term, time-dependent seismicity rates, yet whether the model performs consistently across Taiwan’s complex tectonic settings has not been systematically evaluated. This study retrospec...