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Claudia V. Goldman

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Preprint Jul 2026

SPOTting the Future: Lookahead Explanations for Deep Reinforcement Learning

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agents achieve strong performance in complex environments, yet their decision-making processes remain difficult to interpret. We introduce SPOT (Sampling Policy Observation Tree), a novel model-agnostic, sampling-based framework for interpreting DRL policies. Given access to the policy and an environment simulator, SPOT constructs an interpretable finite-horizon tree by sampling actions and recursively simulating the resulting successor states. The tree provides an empirical representation of the policy's action preferences and their possible downstream evolution. We provide formal guarantees establishing SPOT's asymptotic recovery of the policy's unique most probable action and characterizing its disagreement behavior under high-entropy policies. We demonstrate SPOT in the SUMO-RL traffic-signal control domain. The case study illustrates how its tree-based representation can be used to inspect policy preferences, compare alternative future trajectories, and reveal downstream behaviors that are not visible through single-timestep feature-attribution methods.

Tamar Gozlan, Claudia V. Goldman · 0 citations
Preprint Jul 2026

Context-Aware Concept Distillation for Trustworthy Flood Prediction

Effective flood risk management relies on accurate forecasting, yet the"black box"nature of stateof-the-art Deep Learning models creates a barrier to trust and accountability in high-stakes public safety decisions. While existing Explainable AI (XAI) methods offer local attributions, they fail to provide the verifiable, operationally meaningful causal narratives required by disaster response authorities. To address this societal challenge, we propose Context-Aware Concept Distillation (CACD), a framework developed in collaboration with domain experts to distill opaque LSTMs into interpretable, hydrology-aware surrogate models. We introduce an unsupervised pipeline to discover a"Hydrological Language"and a Residual Hypernetwork that dynamically modulates these concepts based on static basin characteristics. Evaluated on 5,203 basins globally, our model achieves high fidelity (Median NSE 0.70), significantly outperforming black-box baselines (e.g., Multi Layer Perceptrons) on unseen future data. By demonstrating that human-interpretable concepts are sufficient to reconstruct flood dynamics, this work balances AI accuracy with the transparency required for responsible environmental decision-making.

Eli Levinkopf, E. Morin, Claudia V. Goldman · 0 citations