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Sponsored Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, Global Edition Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, Global Edition

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Devansh Mishra

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Preprint Aug 2026

The Calibration-Leverage Tradeoff in Exactly Solvable Win-Probability Models

We study ball-by-ball win probability (WP) for second-innings run chases in Twenty20 cricket, built as an exactly solvable Markov model: we estimate a single object, the per-ball outcome distribution over {0,...,6, wicket}, and derive WP for every game state by backward induction over the acyclic (balls, wickets, runs-...

Devansh Mishra · 0 citations

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