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Author

Dillon Amaya

2 papers indexed here

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Preprint Sep 2026

Precursors, Pathways, and State-Dependent Reliability of Long-range ENSO Prediction in the CESM2 Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble

Understanding the sources of ENSO prediction skill and error is essential for improving long-range climate prediction. Here we examine ENSO precursors in CESM2 Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) hindcasts initialized in February and August during 1970-2019, using ensemble sensitivity analysis and an extended...

Yu-Di Mao, Ga-Chen Zhang, Hui Li et al. · 0 citations
Jul 2026

Seasonal precipitation skill in current climate models is due to initial tropical conditions alone

Using the model-analog forecast technique, we demonstrate that seasonal prediction skill of global precipitation anomalies in current climate models arises entirely from the initial sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) within the tropics. Model-analogs generate predictions by matching initial observed conditions...

Dillon Amaya, Ho‐Hsuan Wei, Matthew Newman et al. · 0 citations

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