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Author

Donald Aadithiyan

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Preprint Aug 2026

Reaching the Tail: Calibration Diversity Drives Conformal Coverage under Data Scarcity

Multi-horizon rare-event forecasting is hard under long macroeconomic series'data constraints: labeled events are scarce, and standard uncertainty quantification assumes an exchangeability that autocorrelation violates. A controlled ablation shows an apparent rare-event threshold for Adaptive Conformal Inference instea...

Donald Aadithiyan · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

Reading the Room: Implicit Confusion Encoding in Recurrent World Model States

This work confirms the signal is causally used, not merely present, by editing $h_t$ directly and watching behaviour change, including a check using real values from other trajectories instead of synthetic edits.

Donald Aadithiyan · 0 citations

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