In transfer-learning settings, a model derived from abundant surrogate labels may be deployed in a target population where gold-standard outcomes are unobserved. Evaluating its target performance is essential for determining whether decisions based on the model remain reliable, yet it is difficult when gold labels are scarce, and covariate distributions differ across data sources. We study a three-sample setting with a small gold-labeled source, a larger surrogate-labeled source, and an unlabeled target. Under conditional transportability, we evaluate the surrogate-derived model against the latent gold-standard outcome in the target population. We propose cross-fitted estimators that transport information from the two labeled sources through source-specific density ratios. We also combine outcome-regression augmentation with a kernel correction for estimating the model near a threshold, accounting for uncertainty from all three samples. We establish asymptotically linear inference for TPR and FPR, consistency and pointwise inference for the ROC curve, and asymptotically normal inference for AUC. Simulations assess bias, coverage, and sensitivity to bandwidth and relative sample sizes. A retrospective temporal validation on Chatbot Arena and a semi-synthetic ACS-Income study provide validation in real-world AI applications.
Large language model (LLM) agents can retrieve memory, call tools, ask clarifying questions, and vary response style, yet adapting these execution decisions to an individual user remains difficult. Fine-tuning a separate LLM is costly or impossible for proprietary systems, while prompts and memory primarily expose user information to the agent rather than adapt its execution decisions from feedback. We formulate personalization of a frozen agent as online learning of a per-user execution policy from scalar feedback observed only for the executed action. We propose FABLE (Factorized Adaptive Bandit Layer for Execution), a lightweight policy layer outside a potentially black-box host agent. FABLE factorizes memory, information-acquisition, and response decisions so feedback updates related choices; filters actions through an externally specified feasible set before exploration; and learns user-specific residual preferences relative to a fixed default-and-cost score via Bayesian contextual Thompson sampling. Under a linear residual-reward model, a calibrated variant inherits an expected-regret bound against the best feasible action. We also characterize preferences unidentifiable under persistent feasibility constraints and provide anytime-valid false-promotion control. Across personalized-reasoning, controlled-feedback, and executable tool-use evaluations, FABLE improves several preference-sensitive behaviors relative to rule-only control while remaining competitive on end-to-end task performance.
Dian Jin, Zhi Zhang, Huichao Li et al.· 0 citations