Photorespiration and drought-induced stomatal closure are two important physiological constraints that reduce carbon assimilation and productivity in C3 forest trees under Mediterranean climatic conditions. Türkiye’s two dominant commercial pine species, Pinus brutia Ten. (Calabrian pine) and Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold subsp. pallasiana (Anatolian black pine), together cover approximately 8.15 million hectares. This study integrated published gas-exchange measurements, radiation-use efficiency estimates from MODIS, official forest inventory data, and dendrochronological growth records into a counterfactual accounting framework and propagated parameter uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulation (N = 40,000 draws). The two constraints jointly reduced weighted-mean net primary productivity (NPP) from a radiation-limited potential of 5.61 to an actual 3.46 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, a reduction of 37.9% (95% CI 32.2–43.4%). Decomposition shows that 47.7% of this loss is the obligate metabolic cost of C3 carboxylation, which no silvicultural intervention can address, while 52.3%—20.1 of the 37.9 percentage points—is drought-attributable. Nationally, the deficit corresponds to 64.3 Mt CO2 yr−1 of forgone sequestration (47.8–81.2) and 34.4 Mm3 yr−1 of forgone stemwood-volume equivalent (24.9–44.5), of which approximately 20.6 Mm3 would be merchantable, giving an annual economic deficit of USD 3.37 billion (2.40–6.48). Filtering the drought-attributable component for eligible area, recovery efficiency, additionality, leakage, and permanence yields approximately 1.0 Mt CO2 yr−1 of potentially issuable credits, fewer than two per cent of the headline figure. Eco-physiological suppression of this magnitude is currently invisible in national forest carbon accounting, and its recognition bears directly on dynamic baseline design and on the credibility of offsets generated from Mediterranean conifer forests.
Emre Yazar, Bülent Akgün, E. Babur· Plants· 0 citations
Global climate change is profoundly altering the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems by modifying temperature and precipitation regimes, increasing the frequency of extreme climatic events, and disrupting soil biological processes. This review synthesizes current knowledge on the impacts of climate change on forest and soil ecosystems, with particular emphasis on soil microbial communities, microbial biomass, microbial processes, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Relevant findings from recent international studies, together with regional observations and climate projections for Türkiye and the Mediterranean Basin, were critically evaluated to identify current knowledge and future research priorities. The reviewed evidence indicates that rising temperatures, prolonged drought, and altered precipitation patterns modify soil moisture, pH, organic carbon inputs, and nutrient availability, resulting in substantial changes in microbial diversity, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. Climate-induced disturbances, including wildfires, pest outbreaks, and vegetation shifts, further accelerate carbon losses and reduce ecosystem resilience, particularly in Mediterranean forests that are highly vulnerable to environmental stress. The review also highlights that microbial responses differ among forest types according to vegetation characteristics, stand age, soil properties, and topographic conditions. Overall, the evidence highlights soil microbial functioning as a key component linking climate stress to forest productivity, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Long-term monitoring and multidisciplinary approaches integrating climatic, vegetation, soil, and microbial processes are therefore needed to improve predictions and support adaptive forest and land-management strategies under future climate scenarios.
E. Babur· TURKISH JOURNAL OF FOREST SC...· 0 citations
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