E. D. de Souza

Multi-decadal convection permitting dynamical downscaling of current and future climates over South America

Climate Change Impacts on Agroforestry Suitability in the Amazon: CMIP6-Based Projections for Theobroma grandiflorum

Climate change is expected to significantly alter surface air temperature and precipitation regimes across the Amazon Basin, with direct implications for agroforestry systems and climate-sensitive perennial crops. This study projects the impacts of anthropogenic global warming on the habitat suitability of Theobroma grandiflorum (cupuaçu), a keystone species for Amazonian agroforestry, local livelihoods, and the bioeconomy. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) framework, we applied multiple algorithms and two CMIP6 global climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR and MIROC6) under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the near-future (2021–2040) and far-future (2061–2080). Contrary to the range contractions projected for many Amazonian endemics, our ensemble projections reveal a consistent trend of expanding climatically suitable area, primarily into adjacent ecological transition zones. This expansion is driven largely by basin-wide increases in mean annual temperature, the most influential predictor in our modeling study. Quantitatively, we project a net habitat expansion of 32.2% (415,114 km2) under high-concordance future scenarios. A core climate refuge of 955,570 km2, representing 74.2% of the current suitable range, is identified as a high priority for in situ conservation. Conversely, approximately 25.8% of the current range (331,919 km2) may become climatically unsuitable, particularly in parts of the western Amazon. These findings suggest that reducing thermal constraints in currently marginal areas could open opportunities for integrating cupuaçu into climate-resilient agroforestry systems beyond its present distribution. Such heterogeneous responses of Amazonian agroforestry species to climate change highlight the importance of incorporating species-specific climate sensitivities into adaptation planning, land-use strategies, and climate-resilient bioeconomy policies under future warming scenarios.

Flood-Driven Landscape Dynamics in Southeastern Amazon Delta-Estuary Watersheds

Extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods and prolonged droughts, cause socio-environmental disasters in several regions of the world, including the Amazon. The Amazon Delta-Estuary, which is shaped by coastal and river environments, has constantly changing land use patterns, making it vulnerable to such events. This study aimed to evaluate rainfall regimes and flood scenarios in the tributaries of the Amazon Delta-Estuary, known as the Ottocoded River sub-basins, which are located in the municipalities of Abaetetuba and Barcarena in the Brazilian state of Pará. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset was used to analyze rainfall dynamics. The Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) model was employed for flood modeling. The geomorphological, altimetric, bathymetric, and hydrodynamic components of the water bodies were also analyzed. Flood susceptibility was zoned as follows: Very High, High, Medium, Low and Very Low. Of the surveyed buildings, 28.8% were classified as ‘Very High’, 29.1% as ‘High’, 20.2% as ‘Medium’, 13.4% as ‘Low’, and 8.5% as ‘Very Low’. Many of these buildings are located in flood-prone areas, posing a significant risk of socio-environmental disasters. This research could inform public policies aimed at managing the risks associated with environmental disasters and extreme events.