Ernesto Estevez Rams

Understanding the superiority of multi-model ensemble forecasts through reservoir computing

It is shown that iterated forecasts over many time steps deviate from the ground truth along the unstable manifold of the target point, in both directions, so that, if forecast errors were independent and had zero mean, the arithmetic mean forecast should approach the true target like $1/\sqrt{\nens}$ where $\nens$ is...