Short-term Heart Rate Variability (HRV) forecasting could provide clinicians with actionable lead time for detecting autonomic dysfunction and adverse cardiac events. Consumer wearable devices generate fragmented, artifact-rich HRV signals that challenge conventional forecasting approaches. In this study, we evaluated the forecasting ability of three Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), TimesFM, Chronos, and MOIRAI, against traditional baselines (Mean, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) on real-world wearable data collected from 49 healthy individuals. To address data fragmentation, we introduce a variability-preserving imputation method that augments linear interpolation with locally adaptive stochastic noise, retaining physiological dynamics essential for accurate forecasting. The results show that TSFMs outperformed all baselines without fine-tuning, achieving average Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) between 0.81 and 0.87 across TSFMs and both context lengths (32 and 64 time steps), with Chronos and TimesFM as the top models, though MOIRAI showed limited gains over baselines. With up to a 2-hour forecast horizon, the results establish a baseline for TSFMs'performance on a real-world dataset, highlighting domain-specific fine-tuning as a promising direction for clinical deployment.
Luukas Peräkylä, F. Sohrab, Ville Hautamäki et al.· 0 citations
Anomaly detection in smart power grids is a critical challenge due to the complexity, heterogeneity, and dynamic nature of sensor data streams. Existing one-class classification methods, particularly Subspace Support Vector Data Description (SVDD), have been extended to multimodal scenarios but often fail to fully exploit the structural dependencies across modalities, limiting their robustness in real-world applications. In this paper, we address this gap by proposing a generalized Multimodal Subspace Support Vector Data Description (MS-SVDD) model with graph-embedded regularization. The method projects data from multiple modalities into a shared low-dimensional subspace while preserving modality-specific structure through Laplacian regularizers. Our approach is evaluated on a three-modality dataset derived from smart grid event time series, using a dedicated preprocessing pipeline for constructing one-class classification training samples. The results demonstrate that our graph-embedded MS-SVDD improves robustness of event detection compared to conventional approaches, highlighting the potential of integrating graph priors with multimodal subspace learning for advancing anomaly detection in critical infrastructure. More broadly, this work contributes to the wider field of AI by illustrating how relational and structural information can be systematically embedded into one-class models, enabling robust learning under complex, high-dimensional, and multimodal conditions.
Thomas Debelle, F. Sohrab, Pekka Abrahamsson et al.· Scientific Reports· 1 citation