Preprint
Sep 2026
Bayesian calibration of adaptive-behavior SIR models for multi-wave COVID-19 incidence in New York City
Epidemic incidence reflects both transmission dynamics and adaptive human behavior, yet these mechanisms may be difficult to distinguish from aggregate case data alone. We calibrated four susceptible--infected--recovered (SIR) specifications to weekly confirmed COVID-19 incidence in New York City from June to December...
Luis A. Barboza, Carlos Pasquier, Baltazar Espinoza et al.
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