Author

Francesco Orabona

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Preprint Oct 2026

Optimal Priors for Betting Tests with Bounded Payoffs: An Exact Efficiency Characterization

Testing by betting is a powerful framework that recasts hypothesis testing as a betting game. A popular approach uses an $F$-weighted portfolio with a predefined prior $F$. For suitable priors, this approach has recently been shown to achieve the optimal expected rejection time as the error probability goes to zero at...

Francesco Orabona · 0 citations

#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Monitoring for Shifts at Unknown Times: Parameter-Free Conditional Conformal Martingales

Conditional conformal test martingales provide sequential tests for detecting distribution shifts, using a fixed reference dataset to avoid contamination from test-time samples. Prior work used a penalized betting function via online optimization with smoothing, clipping, and other hyperparameters, which can adapt slow...

Tuo Liu, Drew Prinster, Francesco Orabona · 0 citations