Ga-Chen Zhang

Precursors, Pathways, and State-Dependent Reliability of Long-range ENSO Prediction in the CESM2 Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble

Understanding the sources of ENSO prediction skill and error is essential for improving long-range climate prediction. Here we examine ENSO precursors in CESM2 Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) hindcasts initialized in February and August during 1970-2019, using ensemble sensitivity analysis and an extended...