Hong-Yu Qu

Do AI-Based Ensembles Improve Typhoon Inland Extreme Rainfall Prediction through Better Representation of Physical Processes? A Case Study of Typhoon GAEMI (2024)

AI-based ensemble weather prediction is emerging as a new paradigm for probabilistic forecasting, yet its ability to represent the key physical processes that govern high-impact extreme rainfall remains unclear. Here, we compare an AI-based ensemble system (AIFS-CRPS) with a conventional physics-based ensemble (IFS-E...