J. Balayla

Uncertain Pretest Probabilities in Diagnostic Reasoning: The Prevalence Threshold as a Tipping Point.

RATIONALE Post-test probabilities are reported as precise numbers even though the pretest probabilities they depend on are uncertain and, for an individual patient, unobservable. Clinicians need a way to tell the mathematical question-how strongly is a change in the pretest estimate carried through to the post-test pro...