Author

Jeremy Goldwasser

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Preprint Aug 2026

Estimating Epidemic Rate Parameters: Adaptivity, Bias, and Convolution

Metrics like the case-fatality rate and reproduction number are key descriptors of epidemics from the COVID-19 pandemic to the seasonal flu. In retrospect, these quantities enrich our understanding of infectious disease outbreaks; in real-time, they are absolutely critical to informing public health response. Thus, an...

Jeremy Goldwasser · 0 citations

Preprint Jul 2026

Fast, Frequentist Estimation of Epidemic Reproduction Numbers

ConvRt is a frequentist method for retrospective and real-time estimation of effective reproduction number (R_t) that deconvolves latent infections and then estimates $R_t$ with successive penalized-likelihood steps, using a spline basis to model smooth curves.

Jeremy Goldwasser, R. Tibshirani, A. Bilinski · 0 citations