Forecasting HIV Incidence Trajectories in Cebu City, Philippines: An ARIMA-Based Time-Series Analysis for Epidemic Surveillance and Public Health Planning
Background: The Philippines is experiencing one of the fastest-growing HIV epidemics in the Western Pacific region, with Cebu City among the most affected urban centers. However, localized forecasting studies remain limited, constraining evidence-based public health planning and resource allocation. This study aims to...