Most time series forecasting benchmarks remain numerical-centric and provide limited support for evaluating contextual information that shapes real-world temporal dynamics. Existing multimodal benchmarks also suffer from limited data and context coverage, fragmented evaluation settings, and overreliance on aggregate evaluation. In this paper, we propose \textbf{MUSE-Bench}, a unified benchmark for multimodal time series forecasting with heterogeneous context. It comprises fourteen datasets across eight domains and six types of context: metadata, events, holidays, news, images, and numerical covariates. We evaluate diverse forecasting paradigms, including statistical, data-specific, foundation, multimodal, and general-purpose LLM forecasting methods under shared non-overlapping forecast windows, common target observations, and consistent point and probabilistic metrics. Extensive experiments yield three main findings. First, numerical time series foundation models dominate the overall ranking, while Aurora, the evaluated multimodal foundation model, trails the leading numerical TSFMs but outperforms all evaluated data-specific models. Second, ablations show that external context improves the four evaluated context-aware models, whereas incorrect or temporally misaligned context degrades performance. Third, general-purpose LLMs perform poorly as direct forecasters, and LLM-guided refinement does not yield consistent improvements. MUSE-Bench enables systematic evaluation of how forecasting models utilize context and provides a foundation for future multimodal forecasting research.
Peng Chen, Zhi-Hao Zhuang, Hong-Zhou Chen et al.· 0 citations
As AI agents become participants in the development of their successors, they reshape both the production of intelligence and the role of human researchers. We introduce Atria Dawn Preview, a foundation agentic language model designed for scientific research and engineering workflows, with the goal of expanding the frontier of agent productivity in the real world. This model is trained via a Verifiable Experience Pipeline that connects tool-mediated interactions to executable environments and externally verified outcomes. Across 16 benchmarks spanning real-world research, engineering, and digital work, Atria Dawn Preview is competitive with frontier agents and achieves the highest reported score on five of them. Beyond standalone performance, we examine the real research-and-development process behind this model as a case study of human--AI collaboration, analyzing 769 task records from 56 participants together with agent logs. When asked to evaluate completed tasks under comparable conditions, participants rated about one-third of completed AI-assisted tasks as infeasible without AI. More strikingly, agents frequently propose methods and implement revisions, while humans retain most final decisions and guide exploration through judgment and feedback. These observations indicate a shift from task-level execution to project-level partnership, with human effort concentrating on what is worth pursuing and how evidence should guide research. Progress toward more autonomous AI research must therefore advance both the capacity for discovery and the capacity for meaningful human oversight, preserving accountable human authority over the risks and direction of continued development.
Hong-Lin Guo, Tao Gui, Yicheng Chen et al.· 0 citations
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