News-driven time series forecasting uses evolving textual events together with historical observations to predict future values, supporting applications such as market risk monitoring and resource scheduling. In multi-agent settings, two challenges still remain. The first is degeneration of thought, where agents converge to similar evidence-seeking behaviors. The second is insufficient theoretical grounding, where strategy updates are often heuristic and lack a principled formulation. To address the above challenges, we propose CompEvo, a competition-induced evolution framework for multi-agent news-driven time series forecasting. For theoretical grounding, we introduce an evolutionary game formulation to guarantee equilibrium existence and optimization convergence. Building on this formulation, we construct a trainable multi-agent evolution framework that integrates strategy execution, fitness-based differentiable selection, and competition-induced strategy evolution. CompEvo enables heterogeneous agents to explore diverse news evidence, converts forecasting feedback into differentiable influence weights, and evolves agent strategies under competitive pressure to preserve effective logic while maintaining diversity. Experiments on four real-world datasets show that CompEvo reduces RMSE by 27.3% and MAPE by 26.2% on average over strong baselines. Further analysis indicates that CompEvo successfully maintains diverse and specialized agent behaviors.
Yuxuan Zhang, Yang-Yang Feng, Yong Guan et al.· 0 citations
On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) uses a privileged teacher to supervise a reasoning model on prefixes sampled from its own rollouts. Yet each rollout also reveals how the student's response unfolds and whether it succeeds, student-specific hindsight that standard OPSD does not use to form the teacher. We introduce Privileged Adaptation from Student Trajectories (PAST), which treats each completed student trajectory as additional privileged information for the OPSD teacher while leaving the student's distillation prefixes unchanged. PAST preserves the student's next-token distribution on correct trajectories and uses failed trajectories to adapt the teacher toward verified success under student-proximity regularization. We characterize what such a trajectory-conditioned teacher can transfer to a prefix-only student. Forward-KL distillation projects the teacher distributions to their conditional arithmetic mean given the prefix. This projection separates trajectory-specific variation that remains privileged from the mean policy shift available to the student. For correct trajectories, the unclipped population objective also has the frozen student as an ideal distributional fixed point. Across three mathematical reasoning benchmarks, PAST improves the Avg@12 macro average over Vanilla OPSD by 5.6 percentage points. A $2\times2$ factorial study shows gains from both complete-trajectory access and teacher adaptation, while trajectory removal and shuffling confirm that the adapted teacher uses the matching hindsight context.
