Author

Karl T. Ulrich

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Preprint Jul 2026

Lucky or Good? Outcome Noise, Effective Sample Size, and the Attribution of Skill

When do outcome records carry enough signal to support reliable inferences about skill? When they do not, what should evaluators substitute? The framework answering the first question characterizes any decision domain with two parameters: the noise reflected in each outcome and the effective number of independent outco...

Karl T. Ulrich · 0 citations