Kathryn McGregor

Intellectual Humility and Probabilistic Belief

Abstract It is natural to express some beliefs in binary terms (P is either believed or not, e.g., “bribery is immoral”), and others in terms of a subjective probability (P has some probability of being true, e.g., “there's an 80% chance a Democrat will win the next election”). Construing a belief in probabilistic term...