Memory-Sovereign Inference: Output-Exact Execution Beyond Full Residency
Storage-backed inference is easy to overclaim: process RSS excludes charged page cache, process-local device readings exclude board-wide use, and successful generation does not establish correct asynchronous reuse. We present a falsifiable certificate separating representation, semantic demand, scheduler requests, and traffic while naming resource authorities, exactness horizons, and tested reuse transitions. At one Qwen3-Next identity, the stock router selects all 48 x 512 managed layer-expert objects during 32K prefill. Their duplicate-free, overlap-free canonical union gives a 43.59375 GiB semantic-demand lower bound, exceeding the declared 34 GiB full-residency envelope and the 11 GiB host-hard plus physical 24 GiB-device envelope. LRU64 execution stays within its host-hard/GPU-audited contract. Against one prespecified zero-cache oracle, all 64 token IDs, every byte of 64 complete 151,936-float logit rows, 3,408 route events, response bytes, and recorded consumer and destination identities are exact. Recurrent-state and upstream-runtime equality are excluded. In a matched source campaign, the buffered path completes exactly but reaches the 11 GiB host ceiling and records 33,481 memory.max events. The blocking one-window direct path and complete eight-window asynchronous component are exact with positive margin and zero limit events. Across six counterbalanced pairs, the complete asynchronous component takes 32.3% of the blocking direct path's wall time at identical physical source bytes per output; the comparison jointly changes queue depth, overlap, and lifecycle implementation. Separately, fourteen prespecified control/fault cells pass across later Qwen3-Next and Gemma 4 binaries, supporting fail-closed behavior only for the named transitions. The principal experiment is one fixed model, workload, runtime, device, and 64-output horizon.