What Volatility Reveals: Agnostic Identification of Exchange Rate and Treasury-Market Dynamics in Inconvenient Times
This paper studies the financial-market transmission of the April 2025 U.S. tariff announcements, with a particular focus on the unusual combination of dollar depreciation and rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields. We ask whether the market reaction can be understood as the propagation of a single tariff-announcement s...