M. Coppedge

Forecast-Necessary Causal Discovery for Nonlinear Political Panel Data: Feedback, Functional Form, and the Dynamics of Democratization

A non-significant coefficient in a dynamic panel model need not imply the absence of a relationship. It may instead reflect heterogeneous effects averaged toward zero, reciprocal dynamics overlooked by a recursive specification, or relationships masked by the omission of correlated covariates. Standard linear estimator...