Author

M. Nechepurenko

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Preprint Open access Sep 2026

From Public Evidence to Contractual Outcome: First and Stable Decidability on Kalshi

Public evidence can become sufficient to settle a prediction-market contract before the venue records its first determination, but the relevant boundary depends on the applicable rule version, exact release object, source hierarchy, correction history, and unfinished contract conditions. This paper defines two Kalshi c...

M. Nechepurenko · 3 citations

Preprint Aug 2026

Axient: Debt-Free Finality for Leveraged Binary Event Markets

Axient, a physically backed margin layer for binary event markets that separates leverage maturity from claim maturity and makes the hard-flat decision under explicit execution uncertainty, is specified.

M. Nechepurenko · 0 citations

Preprint Aug 2026

Axient: On-Chain Credit and Loss Allocation for Leveraged Event Markets: A Venue-Agnostic Protocol for Traders, Credit Providers, Market Makers, and Liquidation Backstops

A physically backed leveraged event position requires real credit: if collateral C receives leverage L, the protocol supplies (L-1)C and uses the combined amount to acquire recognized event exposure. This paper develops a venue-agnostic on-chain credit architecture for that capital layer and an endogenous model of its...

M. Nechepurenko · 0 citations