Haar-Bayesian Pure-State Prediction under Relative-Entropy Loss: Arbitrary-Effect Reduction and Global Optimality
We study Haar-Bayesian prediction of one unmeasured copy of an unknown finite-dimensional pure quantum state after an arbitrary collective measurement on $n$ observed copies. Performance is evaluated by quantum relative entropy. For a fixed measurement, the Bayes predictive state is the posterior mean and the optimized conditional loss is its entropy. We then optimize the measurement over all POVMs on the symmetric subspace. For every nonzero positive effect $E$, the corresponding posterior predictive state is $\mu_E=(I+n\rho_E)/(n+d)$, where $\rho_E$ is the normalized one-particle marginal of $E$. Since a pure spectrum majorizes every density-operator spectrum, this identity gives an outcome-wise entropy lower bound. Coherent rank-one effects attain the bound, and their Haar orbit yields the highest-weight covariant POVM. Hence this POVM is globally Bayes optimal over all collective measurements and, by covariance, globally minimax. Its exact risk is $h_d((n+1)/(n+d))$, where $h_d(r)=-r\log r-(1-r)\log((1-r)/(d-1))$. The same arbitrary-effect reduction shows that the highest-weight POVM also maximizes the joint overlap between the latent pure state and its posterior predictive state, equivalently the mean posterior purity, with optimum $((n+1)^2+d-1)/(n+d)^2$.