Author

Matthew LeDuc

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Preprint Oct 2026

A Physically-Motivated Stochastic Model of Tropical Cyclone Dynamic Wind Fields

Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose significant risk to infrastructure and human safety, and the frequency and intensity of large TCs are expected to increase in the future. Quantifying such risk to coastal and inland regions is challenging, largely due to the rare nature of TCs which limits historical data availability. We i...

Matthew LeDuc, William Kleiber · 0 citations

Preprint Oct 2026

Calibration Assessment for Nested Uncertainty Sets

We present a Bayesian framework for assessing the calibration of nested uncertainty sets from simulation studies. Calibration is typically evaluated by repeatedly simulating data from a known model and comparing empirical coverage probabilities with their nominal values, an approach that often requires hundreds or thou...

Matthew LeDuc · 0 citations