Earth system models underpin climate projections, but their cost limits how many scenarios, ensemble members and impact pathways can be explored. Machine-learning weather models forecast as skillfully as physics-based models at a fraction of the cost, yet coupled to an ocean they have produced weak El Nino variability...
Every weather forecast is uncertain, and decisions from flood warnings to energy trading depend on how well that uncertainty is quantified. Machine-learning (ML) ensembles now quantify it better than the best physics-based ensemble, yet two things about them remain opaque: whether their skill requires hundreds to thous...
Global streamflow forecasting supports flood preparedness, yet data-driven models trained on reanalysis lose skill when driven by operational forecasts, increasingly so with lead time. AIFL addresses this shift with a two-stage transfer-learning recipe and a deterministic LSTM, but it feeds one forecast lead time into...
Neural operators that learn physical laws from data should generalize beyond their training distribution and expose the learned law in closed form. The Kolmogorov-Arnold neural operator achieves both for position-dependent dynamics by learning a dense pseudo-differential symbol over all positions and frequencies, at a...
Rescene is presented, a 0.4 M-parameter wrapper around a frozen 1.5 degree, 6-hourly vision-transformer operator developed using ERA5 reanalysis data and comprising a deterministic"slow clock"(0.33 M) that blends the forecast toward a lead-aware day-of-year climatology and a generative head (0.06 M) that adds a spectra...
Minjong Cheon· 0 citations
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