The Effects of Climate Change on Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Harşit River Basin (Türkiye)
Climate change necessitates basin scale assessments in vulnerable countries such as Türkiye due to its impacts on water resources and drought patterns. In this study, precipitation and runoff data up to the year 2100 were analyzed in the Harşit River Basin, one of the subbasins of the Eastern Black Sea Basin, to identify potential drought events. The SSP585 scenario of the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model was used for temperature and precipitation projections; model outputs were fed into the TUW hydrological model to obtain future flow values for the basin. The data were evaluated using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Runoff Index at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month time scales; comparing the 2009–2021 observation period, the 2040–2070 short term period, and the 2071–2100 long term period. The findings indicate that there will be significant increases in the intensity and frequency of dry and wet periods, particularly during the 2071–2100 period, thereby raising the risks of extreme drought and flash floods in the basin. The results are expected to contribute to drought risk management and sustainable water resources planning in the region.