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N. Kagan

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#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Making Alternative Data Work: Context-Augmented LLMs for Financial Forecasting

When forecasting a firm's future financial performance, alternative data - data collected from non-traditional sources such as consumer transactions, web traffic, and prediction markets - can provide timely signals about firms'operating activities and broader market conditions. These signals may reveal information that...

Jihoon Kwon, Lawrence Liu, Daekyung Park et al. · 0 citations
Jul 2026

When do prophets profit in prediction markets?

Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes a clean equivalence between forecasting accuracy and trading profit, but only for the specific automated market maker (AMM) design. However, the largest exchanges today are ba...

Anri Gu, N. Kagan, Alec Sun et al. · 0 citations

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