Author

N'gbo N'gbo

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Preprint Jul 2026

Equation-Free Screening of Mittag-Leffler-Compatible Dynamics from Scalar Time Series via kNN Multi-Horizon Profiles

Fractional models provide a natural description of systems with memory, but a noninteger derivative should not be introduced solely because a time series is curved or slowly relaxing. We develop an equation-free preliminary screening framework that asks whether a scalar time series produces a multi-horizon k-nearest-ne...

N'gbo N'gbo, Andrei Velichko, Bruno Carpentieri · 1 citation

Preprint Jul 2026

Mittag-Leffler-Type Forecast-Error Growth as a Diagnostic Indicator of Fractional Dynamics

Fractional calculus is a powerful framework for modeling nonlocal behavior in complex systems. However, the identification of fractional dynamics from measured time series remains challenging, as most existing approaches require knowledge of the underlying governing equations. In this work, we propose a data-driven dia...

N'gbo N'gbo, Andrei Velichko · 1 citation

Preprint Aug 2026

Equation-Free Period-Aware Forecast-Error Contraction for Estimating Negative Largest Lyapunov Exponents from Short Trajectory Ensembles

Estimating positive largest Lyapunov exponents from data is comparatively natural because neighboring trajectories separate, whereas stable dynamics require resolving contraction before measurement noise or finite precision erases the signal. We introduce a period-aware forecast-error contraction procedure for estimati...

Andrei Velichko, N'gbo N'gbo, Viet-Thanh Pham · 0 citations