Author

Nicholas G. Polson

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Open access Jun 2026

Perpetual Futures for Stocks: The SpaceX Pre-IPO Market

Robert Shiller proposed perpetual futures in 1993 to create derivative markets for assets that are illiquid or whose price cannot be observed directly. Cryptocurrency markets later built the instrument under a different funding rule. We give a single no-arbitrage result that nests both designs: the perpetual price is t...

Aditya Gupta, Nicholas G. Polson · Entropy · 0 citations

Review Open access Aug 2026

Everything Is Prediction: Modern Machine Learning as Bayesian Inference

We argue that the core methods of modern machine learning—conformal prediction, large language models and in-context learning, and generative/diffusion models—are not rivals to Bayesian inference but implementations of it, almost always of its predictive (de Finetti) form rather than its parameter-centric (prior-to-pos...

Nicholas G. Polson, Vadim Sokolov, R. Soyer · Entropy · 0 citations