Author

Niko Hauzenberger

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Preprint Jul 2026

Conditional projection methods for large-scale Bayesian VARs

This work develops fast methods for conditional forecasting and structural scenario analysis with high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs) and compute counterfactual predictions for oil price scenarios in the context of the 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Niko Hauzenberger, Michael Pfarrhofer · 0 citations