Convergence monitoring of quantum Gibbs samplers
Recent progress in fully quantum Markov chain Monte Carlo methods enables efficient Gibbs-state sampling on quantum computers [Chen et al., Nature 646, 561 (2025)]. Although rigorous worst-case bounds on mixing times remain largely inaccessible for classically intractable systems, experience from classical Monte Carlo suggests that convergence of relevant observables may nevertheless be rapid. This raises the practical question of how to diagnose convergence efficiently, i.e., with at most polynomial overhead. We propose a low-cost criterion for convergence monitoring that exploits the weak measurements inherent in quantum Gibbs samplers and their qubit-efficient variants [Ding et al., arXiv:2508.05703 (2025)]. Our approach is based on the observation that, at thermal equilibrium, the net energy flow between system and environment vanishes and energy-exchange statistics satisfy a balance condition. This condition appears in the distribution of (quasi-)frequencies extracted from the weak-measurement record and we use it to construct a Hamiltonian-agnostic stopping criterion based solely on data already generated by the sampler. We provide a statistical analysis, along with numerical and analytical studies to understand its performance, assumptions, and limitations.