This study aims to analyze the Indonesian capital market's response to the launch of Indonesian Wealth Fund (Danantara) as a strategic initiative of the government's fiscal digitalization on February 24, 2025, focusing on the shares of major state-owned banks, namely BBRI, BMRI, BBNI, and BBTN. This study examines five market indicators, including stock prices, abnormal returns (AR), cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), trading volume, and stock risk, to assess the information content of this public policy. The research method used is an event study with an event window (–7, +7), supported by statistical testing using the paired-sample t-test and the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test to ensure the accuracy of the analysis on different data characteristics. The results show that the launch of Danantara did not result in statistically significant changes in all market indicators tested, indicating that the policy information has been internalized quickly and efficiently by the market. This finding supports the validity of the semi-strong form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, where macro and non-proprietary public information does not create arbitrage opportunities. The novelty of this research lies in the empirical testing of the impact of the launch of a digital-based sovereign wealth fund on state-owned bank shares through a multi-indicator approach, thereby enriching the literature on event studies of public policy and fiscal digital transformation in developing countries.
C. Wijayangka, Nugraha Nugraha, Maya Sari et al.· Dinasti International Journa...· 0 citations
Background: ASEAN capital markets exhibit persistent return volatility that is inconsistent with macroeconomic fundamentals, suggesting the influence of behavioral and structural factors beyond the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).
Objective: This study examines the direct effect of investor sentiment on stock returns across six ASEAN economies and tests the moderating role of foreign capital flows in this relationship.
Methods: Using quarterly panel data from 2003 to 2024 (N = 504) covering Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam, this study employs moderated regression analysis within a fixed effects model (FEM). Investor sentiment is proxied by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), stock returns are measured using national composite indices, and foreign capital flows are operationalized through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The Hausman test confirmed FEM as the appropriate estimator.
Results: Investor sentiment exerts a positive and significant effect on stock returns (β = 0.187, p < 0.05). Although FDI alone does not significantly predict returns (p = 0.177), the interaction term CCI × FDI is highly significant (β = 0.115, p < 0.01), confirming a catalytic moderating effect.
Conclusion: Foreign capital inflows amplify the sentiment–return relationship in ASEAN markets. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers and portfolio managers regarding behavioral market dynamics and capital flow surveillance in emerging economies.
Hadi Ahmad Sukardi, Nugraha Nugraha, Toni Heryana et al.· Inkubis Jurnal Ekonomi dan B...· 0 citations
Background: Digital investment services have expanded retail participation in Indonesia's capital market, but easier market access does not necessarily produce more rational investor behavior. Psychological tendencies continue to shape individual choices, and prior evidence remains inconsistent regarding whether financial literacy can restrain those tendencies.
Objective: This research examines the relationship between an aggregate behavioral-bias construct and investment decisions, the direct role of financial literacy, and the extent to which financial literacy changes the behavioral-bias relationship among retail investors in a digital investment setting.
Methods: A quantitative explanatory design was applied to 300 retail investors who used digital investment platforms. The proposed direct and interaction relationships were estimated using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM).
Results: Behavioral biases were positively associated with investment decisions, while financial literacy also showed a positive direct relationship. The interaction coefficient was negative and significant, indicating that higher financial literacy reduces the strength of the association between behavioral biases and investment decisions.
Conclusion: Financial knowledge supports more informed investment judgment and can moderate behavioral influence, although it does not remove psychological tendencies entirely. Investor education should therefore integrate financial competence with awareness of common behavioral biases.
Duduh Sujana, Nugraha Nugraha, Dismam Dismam et al.· Inkubis Jurnal Ekonomi dan B...· 0 citations
Financial sustainability is a decisive condition for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) because it determines whether firms can maintain liquidity, generate stable profitability, absorb shocks, and finance growth. Drawing on Dynamic Capability Theory and the Resource-Based View, this study examines how managerial capability contributes to SME financial sustainability through product innovation and how access to finance strengthens the innovation-sustainability relationship. The research used a quantitative survey design involving 350 SME owners and managers in West Java, Indonesia, selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected using a structured seven-point Likert questionnaire and analyzed with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The results show that managerial capability has a strong positive effect on product innovation (beta = 0.727; t = 19.755; p < 0.001), product innovation positively affects financial sustainability (beta = 0.411; t = 4.876; p < 0.001), and managerial capability directly improves financial sustainability (beta = 0.231; t = 5.422; p < 0.001). Product innovation significantly mediates the effect of managerial capability on financial sustainability (indirect effect = 0.299; t = 5.742; p < 0.001), while access to finance positively moderates the effect of product innovation on financial sustainability (beta = 0.218; t = 3.108; p = 0.002). The findings support a Dynamic Capability-Based Financial Sustainability Model for SMEs, suggesting that managerial capability becomes financially meaningful when translated into innovation and supported by adequate financial access. The study contributes to strategic management, entrepreneurship, and SME sustainability literature by clarifying the capability-innovation-finance mechanism through which SMEs improve long-term financial viability in an emerging economy context.
Keywords: managerial capability; product innovation; access to finance; financial sustainability; SMEs; dynamic capability; PLS-SEM
Duduh Sujana, N. Nugraha, D. Disman et al.· Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesa...· 0 citations
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