Conformalized graph neural network emulation of regional climate extremes: an artificial intelligence evaluation of coverage guarantees under emissions-scenario shift
Conformal prediction offers distribution-free coverage guarantees for machine-learning emulators of climate extremes, but the guarantee is only as good as the exchangeability assumption that underwrites it. Using NASA POWER monthly reanalysis for Kampala, Uganda (0.35°N, 32.58°E) over 2000–2023 (312 observations, mean...