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Open access Sep 2026

Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space

Anthropogenic methane (CH4) currently contributes more than 0.6 ∘C to global warming, and CH4 mitigation is a powerful option to limit near-term warming. Assessments of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation rely on Integrated Assessment Model scenarios with typically non-linear emission trajectories (due to economic optimiza...

Konstantin Weber, R. Knutti, Lena Brun et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Stochastically Perturbed Weights: Ensembles from Deterministic Machine-Learning Weather Models

Machine-learning weather models (MLWMs) now match or outperform operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) at global medium-range forecasting, at far lower inference cost. Many deployed MLWMs are deterministic, producing a single forecast with no estimate of its own uncertainty, whereas a growing family of trained-...

Simon Adamov, O. Fuhrer, R. Knutti et al. · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

Statistical Noise and Missing Forcing Limit Estimates of Earth's Feedback from Prescribed Sea-Surface Temperature Simulations

Earth's feedback parameter measures how the Earth system responds to forcing and is inversely proportional to climate sensitivity. Sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns can modulate the value of the feedback parameter. Differences between observed and simulated SSTs have raised the question how the observed SSTs evolu...

G. Gyuleva, R. Knutti, R. Noyelle et al. · 0 citations

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