Can AI Forecast the Extremes? Evaluating Probabilistic Weather Models on Tropical Cyclones
An extensive benchmark of tropical cyclone forecasting is conducted, comparing GenCast, FourCastNet 3, and FGN with ECMWF's operational physics-based ensemble, IFS-ENS, finding that leading AI models substantially outperform IFS-ENS in cyclone tracking.
N. Chalumeau, X. Renard, R. Meynadier et al.
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