Author

Ralf Loritz

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#reinforcement learning Open access Oct 2026

The need for uncertainty: why probabilistic LSTMs are key to improving flood predictions and enabling learned warning rules

Deterministic model predictions can struggle to adequately capture extreme events such as floods and droughts, which are of particular importance in hydrology. This limitation arises because deterministic models collapse the conditional discharge distribution to a single point estimate. Probabilistic modeling provides...

Sanika Baste, Sebastian Lerch, Daniel Klotz et al. · KITopen · 0 citations

#reinforcement learning Open access Oct 2026

The need for uncertainty: why probabilistic LSTMs are key to improving flood predictions and enabling learned warning rules

Abstract. Deterministic model predictions can struggle to adequately capture extreme events such as floods and droughts, which are of particular relevance in hydrology. This limitation arises because deterministic models collapse the conditional runoff distribution to a single point estimate. Probabilistic modeling pro...

Sanika Baste, Sebastian Lerch, Daniel Klotz et al. · Hydrology and earth system s... · 0 citations