Author

S. Baur

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#small language model Preprint Oct 2026

Argument Graph Uncertainty: Quantifying Uncertainty from the Logical Structure of Reasoning Chains

This work introduces Argument Graph Uncertainty, a post-hoc framework for multiple choice question tasks that estimates model confidence directly from the logical structure of a single chain-of-thought reasoning trace, and demonstrates through extensive combination analyses that argument graph uncertainty captures an o...

S. Baur, Sumire Honda, Wojciech Samek et al. · 0 citations

#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aar...

Rodrigo Almeida, Noelia Otero, Jost Arndt et al. · 0 citations

Preprint Aug 2026

Beyond Boundary Noise: Aggregated Aleatoric Uncertainty Fails to Capture Presence Ambiguity in 3D Lung Nodule Segmentation

These findings expose a fundamental mismatch between the theoretical promise of aleatoric uncertainty and its practical behavior, and suggest that practitioners should not rely on entropy-based uncertainty as a proxy for clinical ambiguity in safety-critical applications.

S. Baur, Arne Schernich, Ekin Böke et al. · 1 citation