Author

S. O. Cirilo

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Open access Sep 2026

Do Complex Forecasting Models Beat Simple Benchmarks? A Small-Sample Case Study of Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Prices

Many studies report forecasting gains for sophisticated machine-learning and deep-learning models without testing whether those gains survive comparison against simple, reproducible benchmarks. This study tests that question for one-step-ahead monthly forecasting of wheat, corn, and soybean prices (FRED, 2000–2024; 300...

S. O. Cirilo, J. M. Vargas-Canales, Dora María Sangerman Jarquín et al. · Forecasting · 0 citations

Open access Aug 2026

Fractional Long-Memory Dynamics and Residual Machine Learning for Medium-Horizon Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting

This paper develops a hybrid fractional-order framework for medium-horizon forecasting of wheat, corn, and soybean prices, combining a Caputo fractional differential equation with exogenous macro-climatic drivers (weather, crude oil, exchange rate, inflation) and a machine learning residual-correction layer. Existence,...

S. O. Cirilo, J. M. Vargas-Canales, Dora María Sangerman Jarquín et al. · Fractal and Fractional · 0 citations